Today, the Tholos Foundation released a new study in partnership with Vance Ginn, Ph.D. This study found that Illegal immigration will cost taxpayers $2 trillion in Medicare spending under a Medicare for All system.
The U.S. faces multiple overlapping crises: high healthcare costs, an aging population, and unsustainable federal spending. Two policy issues — immigration reform and Medicare sustainability — are at the heart of these challenges. Both policies have far-reaching economic and fiscal stability implications.
There has been a dramatic increase in illegal immigration during the Biden-Harris administration. With nearly 10 million encounters of many of the same people along the U.S.-Mexico border in recent years, the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. was estimated to be 11 million in 2022, with possibly an additional 1.5 million since then to 12.5 million. This has raised concerns about how such an influx of people will affect healthcare systems, social services, federal budget, and the economy. Meanwhile, Medicare, which provides health insurance to over 66 million Americans aged 65 or older or on disability, is projected to be insolvent by 2036.
Key Points from the Tholos Foundation study:
Fiscal Crisis Due to Unsustainable Spending
- Federal deficit was $2.3 trillion in 2024, largely due to spending on mandatory programs of Medicare and Social Security that consume about half of the budget.
- The national debt has now exceeded $35 trillion, and annual net interest payments surpass $1 trillion—higher than defense spending.
- Medicare is projected to become insolvent by 2036, leaving the government unable to cover healthcare costs for seniors without major reforms.
Impact of Immigration:
- U.S. has had a surge in illegal immigration under the Biden-Harris administration, with an estimated 11 to 12.5 million undocumented immigrants now.
- If amnesty is granted to these immigrants, the aggregate cost of putting them into Medicare after they retire could be about $1.8 trillion over time.
- Younger, higher-skilled immigrants contribute positively to the economy and budget, while older, lower-skilled immigrants impose burdens like Medicare.
Medicare for All: Creating a government-run national healthcare system.
- Vice President Kamala Harris’s Medicare for All proposal could cost nearly $44 trillion over the next decade.
- Cost of including illegal immigrants would be at least $2 trillion over a decade.
Proposed Reforms:
- Sustainable Budgeting: A federal spending cap with a maximum from the rate of population growth plus inflation. More economic growth and less spending will help balance the budget and prioritize reforms to mandatory programs.
- Work Requirements and Block Grants: Implementing work requirements for social programs like Medicaid encourages less dependence on governments.
- Visa Auctions for Market-Driven Immigration: A better approach to reforming immigration would be to price visas based on immigrant supply and economic demand.
To read the study in full, click here or see below.